Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Cuiaba the pick at 79% for Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cuiaba face Ponte Preta on 3 October 2026 at Arena Pantanal. Cuiaba are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 79%. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as Cuiaba - Ponte Preta. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cuiaba: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 15 conceded in 19 matches, 0.84 and 0.79 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +5.
Ponte Preta: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 47 conceded in 23 matches, 0.7 and 2.04 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -45.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cuiaba | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 20th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -45 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 1 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.84 / 0.79 | 0.7 / 2.04 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.21 | 0.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.6 | 23.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 79% | 3% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cuiaba 49.6 versus Ponte Preta 23.8, a gap of 25.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 21%.
- First goal: Leans Cuiaba's way at 83%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Cuiaba at 79%, a gap of 60 percentage points to the next outcome. Cuiaba's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cuiaba's way, especially at Arena Pantanal.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cuiaba or Ponte Preta?
Cuiaba, with an implied win probability of roughly 79%. The full split is 79% Cuiaba, 18% the draw and 3% Ponte Preta.
When and where is Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta being played?
3 October 2026 at Arena Pantanal, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cuiaba and Ponte Preta?
Ponte Preta 1-2 Cuiaba on 09 June 2026.
What is the recent form of Cuiaba and Ponte Preta?
Cuiaba have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), Ponte Preta 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Cuiaba took a 0-3 defeat away at CRB and Ponte Preta a 1-0 win at home to CRB.
How many goals are expected in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.80 for Cuiaba and 0.40 for Ponte Preta. It rates over 2.5 goals at 21%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 21%, so its call is no.