Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Fortaleza EC the pick at 47% for Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Fortaleza EC face Nautico Recife on 3 October 2026. Fortaleza EC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as Fortaleza EC - Nautico Recife. Kick-off is 00:35 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fortaleza EC: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 25 conceded in 25 matches, 1.2 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +9.
Nautico Recife: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 21 conceded in 20 matches, 1.2 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Fortaleza EC | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 14th |
| Goal difference | +9 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.05 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.9 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fortaleza EC 63.9 versus Nautico Recife 48.6, a gap of 15.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 18% and both teams to score at 33%.
- First goal: Leans Fortaleza EC's way at 72%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Fortaleza EC at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fortaleza EC or Nautico Recife?
Fortaleza EC, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Fortaleza EC, 41% the draw and 11% Nautico Recife.
When and where is Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife being played?
3 October 2026, kick-off 00:35 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife?
Nautico Recife 0-1 Fortaleza EC on 09 June 2026.
What is the recent form of Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife?
Fortaleza EC have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), Nautico Recife 7 from theirs (WLDLW). Most recently Fortaleza EC took a 2-2 draw at home to Athletic Club and Nautico Recife a 3-1 win at home to Sport Recife.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.60 for Fortaleza EC and 2.00 for Nautico Recife. It rates over 2.5 goals at 18%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 33%, so its call is no.