Londrina vs Criciuma: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Londrina and Criciuma on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Londrina face Criciuma on 2 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 44%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as Londrina - Criciuma. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Londrina: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 1.0 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.0 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -4.
Criciuma: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 17 conceded in 19 matches, 0.84 and 0.89 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Londrina | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -4 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 7 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.27 | 0.84 / 0.89 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.86 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.0 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Londrina 44.0 versus Criciuma 46.0, a gap of 2.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 26% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Londrina's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 44%, but the three results sit close to even. Criciuma's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Londrina or Criciuma?
Neither side. Our model splits it 44% Londrina, 44% the draw and 12% Criciuma, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Londrina vs Criciuma being played?
2 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Londrina and Criciuma?
Criciuma 1-0 Londrina on 06 June 2026.
What is the recent form of Londrina and Criciuma?
Londrina have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Criciuma 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently Londrina took a 0-2 defeat away at Vila Nova and Criciuma a 3-0 win at home to Avai.
How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Criciuma?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for Londrina and 1.20 for Criciuma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 26%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.