Novorizontino vs Goias: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Novorizontino vs Goias. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Goias travel to Novorizontino on 2 October 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as Novorizontino - Goias. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Novorizontino: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 24 conceded in 32 matches, 1.41 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +22.
Goias: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 30 conceded in 25 matches, 1.16 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.5 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Novorizontino | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +22 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWW | LWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.41 / 0.75 | 1.16 / 1.2 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.2 | 43.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 18% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Novorizontino 57.2 versus Goias 43.5, a gap of 13.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 38%.
- First goal: Leans Novorizontino's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Goias' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Novorizontino or Goias?
Neither side. Our model splits it 35% Novorizontino, 48% the draw and 18% Goias, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Novorizontino vs Goias being played?
2 October 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Novorizontino and Goias?
Goias 0-4 Novorizontino on 10 June 2026.
What is the recent form of Novorizontino and Goias?
Novorizontino have taken 8 points from their last five (DLDWW), Goias 6 from theirs (LWWLL). Most recently Novorizontino took a 0-0 draw at home to São Bernardo and Goias a 0-1 defeat at home to Atletico Goianiense.
How many goals are expected in Novorizontino vs Goias?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.00 for Novorizontino and 1.20 for Goias. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 38%, so its call is no.