São Bernardo vs CRB: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for São Bernardo vs CRB. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
CRB travel to São Bernardo on 2 October 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as São Bernardo - CRB. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
São Bernardo: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 26 conceded in 27 matches, 1.59 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +9.
CRB: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 29 conceded in 24 matches, 1.5 and 1.21 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | São Bernardo | CRB |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +9 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.59 / 0.96 | 1.5 / 1.21 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.78 | 1.54 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.6 | 56.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: São Bernardo 60.6 versus CRB 56.0, a gap of 4.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans São Bernardo's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: São Bernardo or CRB?
Neither side. Our model splits it 38% São Bernardo, 47% the draw and 16% CRB, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is São Bernardo vs CRB being played?
2 October 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between São Bernardo and CRB?
CRB 2-3 São Bernardo on 07 June 2026.
What is the recent form of São Bernardo and CRB?
São Bernardo have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWLW), CRB 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently São Bernardo took a 0-0 draw away at Novorizontino and CRB a 3-0 win at home to Cuiaba.
How many goals are expected in São Bernardo vs CRB?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.80 for São Bernardo and 1.00 for CRB. It rates over 2.5 goals at 84%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.