America Mineiro vs Cuiaba — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Cuiaba the pick at 43% for America Mineiro vs Cuiaba. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cuiaba travel to America Mineiro on 26 October 2026. Cuiaba are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie B is listed as America Mineiro - Cuiaba. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
America Mineiro: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 35 conceded in 20 matches, 0.75 and 1.75 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.0 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -32.
Cuiaba: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 15 conceded in 19 matches, 0.84 and 0.79 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.6 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | America Mineiro | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -32 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLL | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 5 | 2 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.75 / 1.75 | 0.84 / 0.79 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.6 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.0 | 39.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 43% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: America Mineiro 27.0 versus Cuiaba 39.6, a gap of 12.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Cuiaba's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Cuiaba at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: America Mineiro or Cuiaba?
Cuiaba, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 28% America Mineiro, 29% the draw and 43% Cuiaba.
When and where is America Mineiro vs Cuiaba being played?
26 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Have America Mineiro and Cuiaba met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of America Mineiro and Cuiaba?
America Mineiro have taken 3 points from their last five (WLLLL), Cuiaba 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently America Mineiro took a 1-0 win at home to Operario-PR and Cuiaba a 0-1 defeat away at Londrina.
How many goals are expected in America Mineiro vs Cuiaba?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for America Mineiro and 1.20 for Cuiaba. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.