São Bernardo vs Vila Nova match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes São Bernardo the pick at 45% for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
São Bernardo face Vila Nova on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo. São Bernardo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie B is listed as São Bernardo - Vila Nova. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
São Bernardo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 27 conceded in 28 matches, 1.54 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +9.
Vila Nova: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 26 conceded in 23 matches, 1.13 and 1.13 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.4 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | São Bernardo | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +9 | +15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWD | DWDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 7 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.54 / 0.96 | 1.13 / 1.13 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.9 | 65.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: São Bernardo 43.9 versus Vila Nova 65.4, a gap of 21.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans São Bernardo's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to São Bernardo at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Vila Nova's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts São Bernardo's way, especially at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: São Bernardo or Vila Nova?
São Bernardo, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% São Bernardo, 27% the draw and 27% Vila Nova.
When and where is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have São Bernardo and Vila Nova met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of São Bernardo and Vila Nova?
São Bernardo have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLWD), Vila Nova 11 from theirs (DWDWW). Most recently São Bernardo took a 0-1 defeat at home to Criciuma and Vila Nova a 2-2 draw at home to Novorizontino.
How many goals are expected in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.60 for São Bernardo and 1.00 for Vila Nova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.