Sport Recife vs Criciuma: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Sport Recife and Criciuma on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Criciuma travel to Sport Recife on 24 October 2026 at Ilha do Retiro, Recife. Sport Recife are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie B is listed as Sport Recife - Criciuma. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sport Recife: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 18 conceded in 21 matches, 1.05 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +8.
Criciuma: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 0.85 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sport Recife | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +8 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWL | WWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 7 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.05 / 0.86 | 0.85 / 0.85 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.43 | 1.55 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.3 | 66.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Sport Recife 50.3 versus Criciuma 66.8, a gap of 16.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Sport Recife's way at 46%.
The call
The model does not commit. Sport Recife is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sport Recife's way, especially at Ilha do Retiro.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sport Recife or Criciuma?
Sport Recife, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Sport Recife, 34% the draw and 30% Criciuma.
When and where is Sport Recife vs Criciuma being played?
24 October 2026 at Ilha do Retiro, Recife, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Have Sport Recife and Criciuma met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sport Recife and Criciuma?
Sport Recife have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWWL), Criciuma 12 from theirs (WWLWW). Most recently Sport Recife took a 0-2 defeat at home to Fortaleza EC and Criciuma a 1-0 win away at São Bernardo.
How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Sport Recife and 0.60 for Criciuma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.