Athletic Club vs Ceara: match summary, form and prediction
Athletic Club host Ceara with a season still short of where it should be — 14th in Serie B and winless in five. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Ceara travel to Athletic Club on 2 November 2026 at Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei. Athletic Club are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 36 fixture in Serie B is listed as Athletic Club - Ceara. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Athletic Club: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 25 conceded in 30 matches, 1.5 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of 0. For a club of Athletic Club's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Ceara: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 29 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Athletic Club | Ceara |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 16th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLL | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 4 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 30 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 0.83 | 1.15 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.53 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 46.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 13% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Athletic Club 31.7 versus Ceara 46.6, a gap of 14.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Athletic Club are 14th with a goal difference of 0 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Athletic Club's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Athletic Club at 64%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Athletic Club's way, especially at Estadio Joaquim Portugal.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Athletic Club or Ceara?
Athletic Club, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Athletic Club, 23% the draw and 13% Ceara.
When and where is Athletic Club vs Ceara being played?
2 November 2026 at Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Athletic Club and Ceara?
Ceara 0-0 Athletic Club on 13 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Athletic Club and Ceara?
Athletic Club have taken 2 points from their last five (LDDLL), Ceara 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Athletic Club took a 0-1 defeat away at Operario-PR and Ceara a 0-2 defeat at home to Goias.
How many goals are expected in Athletic Club vs Ceara?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.40 for Athletic Club and 0.80 for Ceara. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.