Criciuma vs Ponte Preta — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Criciuma the pick at 67% for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Ponte Preta travel to Criciuma on 30 October 2026. Criciuma are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 36 fixture in Serie B is listed as Criciuma - Ponte Preta. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Criciuma: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 19 conceded in 21 matches, 0.86 and 0.9 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.5 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +6.
Ponte Preta: they come in on two successive draws, following three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 49 conceded in 24 matches, 0.75 and 2.04 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 17.9 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -55.
Side by side
| Statistic | Criciuma | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 20th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -55 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | DDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 4 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.86 / 0.9 | 0.75 / 2.04 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.48 | 0.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.5 | 17.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 10% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Criciuma 56.5 versus Ponte Preta 17.9, a gap of 38.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Criciuma's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Criciuma at 67%, a gap of 43 percentage points to the next outcome. Criciuma's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Criciuma or Ponte Preta?
Criciuma, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Criciuma, 23% the draw and 10% Ponte Preta.
When and where is Criciuma vs Ponte Preta being played?
30 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Have Criciuma and Ponte Preta met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Criciuma and Ponte Preta?
Criciuma have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), Ponte Preta 2 from theirs (DDLLL). Most recently Criciuma took a 1-2 defeat away at Sport Recife and Ponte Preta a 2-2 draw at home to Fortaleza EC.
How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.80 for Criciuma and 0.40 for Ponte Preta. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.