Cuiaba vs São Bernardo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Cuiaba and São Bernardo on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Cuiaba face São Bernardo on 1 November 2026 at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba. São Bernardo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 36 fixture in Serie B is listed as Cuiaba - São Bernardo. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cuiaba: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 16 conceded in 20 matches, 0.8 and 0.8 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.3 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of +4.
São Bernardo: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 29 conceded in 29 matches, 1.59 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cuiaba | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLDW | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 3 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.59 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.15 | 1.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.3 | 50.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 37% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cuiaba 39.3 versus São Bernardo 50.8, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans São Bernardo's way at 46%.
The call
The model does not commit. São Bernardo is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. São Bernardo's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cuiaba or São Bernardo?
São Bernardo, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 34% Cuiaba, 29% the draw and 37% São Bernardo.
When and where is Cuiaba vs São Bernardo being played?
1 November 2026 at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cuiaba and São Bernardo?
São Bernardo 2-2 Cuiaba on 12 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Cuiaba and São Bernardo?
Cuiaba have taken 4 points from their last five (LLLDW), São Bernardo 7 from theirs (WLDLW). Most recently Cuiaba took a 0-1 defeat away at America Mineiro and São Bernardo a 3-2 win at home to Vila Nova.
How many goals are expected in Cuiaba vs São Bernardo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Cuiaba and 1.60 for São Bernardo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.