Nautico Recife vs Avai match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes Nautico Recife the pick at 46% for Nautico Recife vs Avai. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Nautico Recife host Avai on 31 October 2026 at Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife. Nautico Recife are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 36 fixture in Serie B is listed as Nautico Recife - Avai. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nautico Recife: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 25 conceded in 21 matches, 1.14 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.9 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Avai: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 27 conceded in 23 matches, 0.78 and 1.17 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Nautico Recife | Avai |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLD | LDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 9 | 3 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 1.19 | 0.78 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 0.87 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.9 | 45.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Nautico Recife 29.9 versus Avai 45.3, a gap of 15.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Nautico Recife's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Nautico Recife at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Avai's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Nautico Recife's way, especially at Estadio dos Aflitos.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nautico Recife or Avai?
Nautico Recife, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Nautico Recife, 28% the draw and 26% Avai.
When and where is Nautico Recife vs Avai being played?
31 October 2026 at Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nautico Recife and Avai?
Avai 2-0 Nautico Recife on 12 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Nautico Recife and Avai?
Nautico Recife have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLLD), Avai 7 from theirs (LDWWL). Most recently Nautico Recife took a 0-4 defeat away at Juventude and Avai a 0-2 defeat at home to Botafogo SP.
How many goals are expected in Nautico Recife vs Avai?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 1.20 for Nautico Recife and 0.40 for Avai. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.