Avai vs São Bernardo match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes São Bernardo the pick at 40% for Avai vs São Bernardo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
São Bernardo travel to Avai on 7 November 2026 at Ressacada. São Bernardo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 37 fixture in Serie B is listed as Avai - São Bernardo. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Avai: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 28 conceded in 24 matches, 0.75 and 1.17 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.1 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -13.
São Bernardo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 30 conceded in 30 matches, 1.6 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Avai | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -13 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWW | WWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 4 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 24 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.75 / 1.17 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.83 | 1.8 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.1 | 51.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Avai 45.1 versus São Bernardo 51.1, a gap of 6.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans São Bernardo's way at 46%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards São Bernardo at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. São Bernardo's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avai or São Bernardo?
São Bernardo, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 33% Avai, 27% the draw and 40% São Bernardo.
When and where is Avai vs São Bernardo being played?
7 November 2026 at Ressacada, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avai and São Bernardo?
São Bernardo 1-1 Avai on 17 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Avai and São Bernardo?
Avai have taken 7 points from their last five (LLDWW), São Bernardo 7 from theirs (WWLDL). Most recently Avai took a 0-1 defeat away at Nautico Recife and São Bernardo a 2-1 win away at Cuiaba.
How many goals are expected in Avai vs São Bernardo?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.20 for Avai and 1.60 for São Bernardo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.