Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes Novorizontino the pick at 46% for Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Novorizontino host Fortaleza EC on 7 November 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte. Novorizontino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 37 fixture in Serie B is listed as Novorizontino - Fortaleza EC. Kick-off is 19:10 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Novorizontino: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 27 conceded in 35 matches, 1.43 and 0.77 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 76.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +33.
Fortaleza EC: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 27 conceded in 27 matches, 1.19 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Novorizontino | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Goal difference | +33 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | DDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 4 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 35 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 0.77 | 1.19 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.63 | 1.74 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 76.6 | 58.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Novorizontino 76.6 versus Fortaleza EC 58.0, a gap of 18.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Novorizontino's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Novorizontino at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Novorizontino's way, especially at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Novorizontino or Fortaleza EC?
Novorizontino, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Novorizontino, 27% the draw and 27% Fortaleza EC.
When and where is Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, kick-off 19:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC 1-0 Novorizontino on 18 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC?
Novorizontino have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Fortaleza EC 9 from theirs (DDWDW). Most recently Novorizontino took a 2-1 win at home to Operario-PR and Fortaleza EC a 0-0 draw at home to Atletico Goianiense.
How many goals are expected in Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.80 for Novorizontino and 1.00 for Fortaleza EC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.