Vila Nova vs Criciuma — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Vila Nova the pick at 40% for Vila Nova vs Criciuma. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Vila Nova face Criciuma on 6 November 2026. Vila Nova are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 37 fixture in Serie B is listed as Vila Nova - Criciuma. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vila Nova: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 31 conceded in 25 matches, 1.2 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +14.
Criciuma: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 19 conceded in 22 matches, 0.91 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Vila Nova | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +14 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWD | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 7 | 5 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.2 / 1.24 | 0.91 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.48 | 1.55 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.5 | 57.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Vila Nova 48.5 versus Criciuma 57.0, a gap of 8.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Vila Nova's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Vila Nova at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Criciuma's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vila Nova or Criciuma?
Vila Nova, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Vila Nova, 29% the draw and 31% Criciuma.
When and where is Vila Nova vs Criciuma being played?
6 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vila Nova and Criciuma?
Criciuma 2-0 Vila Nova on 18 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Vila Nova and Criciuma?
Vila Nova have taken 6 points from their last five (DLDWD), Criciuma 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Vila Nova took a 2-2 draw at home to Juventude and Criciuma a 2-0 win at home to Ponte Preta.
How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Criciuma?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.80 for Vila Nova and 0.80 for Criciuma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.