America Mineiro vs Avai — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Avai the pick at 39% for America Mineiro vs Avai. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
America Mineiro host Avai on 14 November 2026 at Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte. Avai are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 38 fixture in Serie B is listed as America Mineiro - Avai. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
America Mineiro: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 36 conceded in 23 matches, 0.87 and 1.57 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.0 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -28.
Avai: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 29 conceded in 25 matches, 0.8 and 1.16 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | America Mineiro | Avai |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -28 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | WLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 3 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 23 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.87 / 1.57 | 0.8 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.0 | 45.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 39% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: America Mineiro 58.0 versus Avai 45.3, a gap of 12.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Avai's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Avai at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: America Mineiro or Avai?
Avai, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 33% America Mineiro, 28% the draw and 39% Avai.
When and where is America Mineiro vs Avai being played?
14 November 2026 at Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between America Mineiro and Avai?
Avai 2-1 America Mineiro on 21 July 2026.
What is the recent form of America Mineiro and Avai?
America Mineiro have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Avai 7 from theirs (WLLDW). Most recently America Mineiro took a 1-0 win away at Ceara and Avai a 2-1 win at home to São Bernardo.
How many goals are expected in America Mineiro vs Avai?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for America Mineiro and 0.60 for Avai. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.