Criciuma vs Novorizontino — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Novorizontino the pick at 39% for Criciuma vs Novorizontino. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Criciuma face Novorizontino on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma. Novorizontino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 38 fixture in Serie B is listed as Criciuma - Novorizontino. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Criciuma: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 20 conceded in 23 matches, 0.87 and 0.87 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +7.
Novorizontino: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 28 conceded in 36 matches, 1.44 and 0.78 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 76.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +34.
Side by side
| Statistic | Criciuma | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +7 | +34 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 12 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 23 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.87 / 0.87 | 1.44 / 0.78 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.8 | 76.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 39% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Criciuma 56.8 versus Novorizontino 76.8, a gap of 20.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Criciuma's way at 46%.
The call
The model edges towards Novorizontino at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Criciuma or Novorizontino?
Novorizontino, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 34% Criciuma, 27% the draw and 39% Novorizontino.
When and where is Criciuma vs Novorizontino being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Criciuma and Novorizontino?
Novorizontino 0-1 Criciuma on 21 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Criciuma and Novorizontino?
Criciuma have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), Novorizontino 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Criciuma took a 0-1 defeat away at Vila Nova and Novorizontino a 2-1 win at home to Fortaleza EC.
How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Novorizontino?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.80 for Criciuma and 1.60 for Novorizontino. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.