Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Fortaleza EC the pick at 54% for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Fortaleza EC host Vila Nova on 14 November 2026. Fortaleza EC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 38 fixture in Serie B is listed as Fortaleza EC - Vila Nova. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fortaleza EC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 29 conceded in 28 matches, 1.18 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +11.
Vila Nova: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 31 conceded in 26 matches, 1.19 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.4 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fortaleza EC | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +11 | +15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDWD | WDLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.18 / 1.04 | 1.19 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.68 | 1.54 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.8 | 55.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fortaleza EC 47.8 versus Vila Nova 55.4, a gap of 7.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Fortaleza EC's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Fortaleza EC at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Vila Nova's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fortaleza EC or Vila Nova?
Fortaleza EC, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Fortaleza EC, 25% the draw and 21% Vila Nova.
When and where is Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova?
Vila Nova 2-1 Fortaleza EC on 22 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova?
Fortaleza EC have taken 6 points from their last five (LDDWD), Vila Nova 8 from theirs (WDLDW). Most recently Fortaleza EC took a 1-2 defeat away at Novorizontino and Vila Nova a 1-0 win at home to Criciuma.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Fortaleza EC and 1.60 for Vila Nova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.