São Bernardo vs Athletic Club: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Athletic Club travel to São Bernardo needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 14th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
São Bernardo host Athletic Club on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo. Athletic Club are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 38 fixture in Serie B is listed as São Bernardo - Athletic Club. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
São Bernardo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 32 conceded in 31 matches, 1.58 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +10.
Athletic Club: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 31 conceded in 34 matches, 1.53 and 0.91 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of 0. For a club of Athletic Club's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | São Bernardo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +10 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | LWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 31 | 34 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.58 / 1.03 | 1.53 / 0.91 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.74 | 1.56 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.8 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 41% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: São Bernardo 50.8 versus Athletic Club 41.7, a gap of 9.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Athletic Club are 14th with a goal difference of 0 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Athletic Club's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Athletic Club at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. São Bernardo's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: São Bernardo or Athletic Club?
Athletic Club, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 34% São Bernardo, 25% the draw and 41% Athletic Club.
When and where is São Bernardo vs Athletic Club being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have São Bernardo and Athletic Club met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of São Bernardo and Athletic Club?
São Bernardo have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), Athletic Club 5 from theirs (LWLDD). Most recently São Bernardo took a 1-2 defeat away at Avai and Athletic Club a 2-3 defeat at home to Atletico Goianiense.
How many goals are expected in São Bernardo vs Athletic Club?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.60 for São Bernardo and 2.60 for Athletic Club. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.