Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan match summary and prediction — Super League
There is barely anything between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Henan Jianye face Beijing Guoan on 24 October 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Zhengzhou. Henan Jianye are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 29 fixture in Super League is listed as Henan Jianye - Beijing Guoan. Kick-off is 07:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Henan Jianye: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four draws before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 24 conceded in 22 matches, 1.18 and 1.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -3.
Beijing Guoan: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 1.77 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +20.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Henan Jianye | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -3 | +20 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDDD | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 8 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.18 / 1.09 | 1.77 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.6 | 60.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 32% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Henan Jianye 37.6 versus Beijing Guoan 60.0, a gap of 22.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Henan Jianye's way at 50%.
The call
The model does not commit. Henan Jianye is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Beijing Guoan's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Henan Jianye's way, especially at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Henan Jianye or Beijing Guoan?
Henan Jianye, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Henan Jianye, 32% the draw and 32% Beijing Guoan.
When and where is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan being played?
24 October 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Zhengzhou, kick-off 07:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye on 23 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
Henan Jianye have taken 4 points from their last five (LDDDD), Beijing Guoan 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Henan Jianye took a 0-1 defeat at home to Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan a 1-0 win at home to Qingdao Youth Island.
How many goals are expected in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 0.80 for Henan Jianye and 2.00 for Beijing Guoan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.