Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Beijing Guoan the pick at 59% for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Beijing Guoan host Chongqing Tongliang Long on 8 November 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing. Beijing Guoan are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 30 fixture in Super League is listed as Beijing Guoan - Chongqing Tongliang Long. Kick-off is 07:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Beijing Guoan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 40 conceded in 25 matches, 1.96 and 1.6 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +21.
Chongqing Tongliang Long: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 27 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Beijing Guoan | Chongqing Tongliang Long |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 9th |
| Goal difference | +21 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWW | WDDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 12 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.96 / 1.6 | 1.29 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.56 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.9 | 44.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Beijing Guoan 66.9 versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 44.2, a gap of 22.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Beijing Guoan's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Beijing Guoan at 59%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Beijing Guoan's way, especially at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Beijing Guoan or Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Beijing Guoan, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Beijing Guoan, 20% the draw and 21% Chongqing Tongliang Long.
When and where is Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
8 November 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing, kick-off 07:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 Beijing Guoan on 30 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Beijing Guoan have taken 10 points from their last five (LDWWW), Chongqing Tongliang Long 5 from theirs (WDDLL). Most recently Beijing Guoan took a 4-7 defeat away at Port FC and Chongqing Tongliang Long a 2-0 win at home to Qingdao Jonoon.
How many goals are expected in Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.80 for Beijing Guoan and 1.20 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.