Baranovichi vs Naftan: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Baranovichi the pick at 49% for Baranovichi vs Naftan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Naftan travel to Baranovichi on 31 October 2026 at Lokomotiv Stadium, Baranovichi. Baranovichi are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 27 fixture in Premier League is listed as Baranovichi - Naftan. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Baranovichi: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 21 conceded in twelve matches, 1.58 and 1.75 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -16.
Naftan: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 42 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 2.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -38.
Side by side
| Statistic | Baranovichi | Naftan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -16 | -38 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | LLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 12 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.58 / 1.75 | 1.0 / 2.47 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.25 | 0.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.3 | 38.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Baranovichi 34.3 versus Naftan 38.8, a gap of 4.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Baranovichi's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to Baranovichi at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Baranovichi's way, especially at Lokomotiv Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Baranovichi or Naftan?
Baranovichi, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Baranovichi, 25% the draw and 25% Naftan.
When and where is Baranovichi vs Naftan being played?
31 October 2026 at Lokomotiv Stadium, Baranovichi, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Baranovichi and Naftan met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Baranovichi and Naftan?
Baranovichi have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Naftan 7 from theirs (LLWWD). Most recently Baranovichi took a 3-1 win away at FC Minsk and Naftan a 0-6 defeat at home to FC Isloch Minsk R.
How many goals are expected in Baranovichi vs Naftan?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for Baranovichi and 1.80 for Naftan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.