Irtysh vs Ordabasy — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Irtysh the pick at 48% for Irtysh vs Ordabasy. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Irtysh host Ordabasy on 31 October 2026 at Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar. Irtysh are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 30 fixture in Premier League is listed as Irtysh - Ordabasy. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Irtysh: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -15.
Ordabasy: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +38.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Irtysh | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -15 | +38 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLW | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 12 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.2 | 77.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Irtysh 41.2 versus Ordabasy 77.8, a gap of 36.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Irtysh's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to Irtysh at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Irtysh's way, especially at Centralnyj Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Irtysh or Ordabasy?
Irtysh, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Irtysh, 24% the draw and 28% Ordabasy.
When and where is Irtysh vs Ordabasy being played?
31 October 2026 at Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have Irtysh and Ordabasy met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Irtysh and Ordabasy?
Irtysh have taken 6 points from their last five (WLLLW), Ordabasy 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Irtysh took a 3-2 win away at Atyrau and Ordabasy a 1-1 draw at home to Zhenys.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh vs Ordabasy?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for Irtysh and 1.00 for Ordabasy. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.