FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the pick at 51% for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FK Tobol Kostanay host Aktobe on 31 October 2026 at Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay. FK Tobol Kostanay are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 30 fixture in Premier League is listed as FK Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FK Tobol Kostanay: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +1.
Aktobe: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | FK Tobol Kostanay | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLW | DLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 7 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.6 | 53.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FK Tobol Kostanay 58.6 versus Aktobe 53.4, a gap of 5.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 29% and both teams to score at 37%.
- First goal: Leans FK Tobol Kostanay's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to FK Tobol Kostanay at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FK Tobol Kostanay's way, especially at Centralnyj Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FK Tobol Kostanay or Aktobe?
FK Tobol Kostanay, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% FK Tobol Kostanay, 32% the draw and 18% Aktobe.
When and where is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe being played?
31 October 2026 at Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe?
FK Tobol Kostanay have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWLW), Aktobe 8 from theirs (DLWDW). Most recently FK Tobol Kostanay took a 1-1 draw away at Zhetysu and Aktobe a 2-2 draw at home to Kairat Almaty.
How many goals are expected in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.00 for Aktobe. It rates over 2.5 goals at 29%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 37%, so its call is no.