Türkiye vs France: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Türkiye vs France. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
France travel to Türkiye on 25 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This 1 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Türkiye - France. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Türkiye: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of 0.
France: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded eight, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Türkiye | France |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWW | LLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 21% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Türkiye's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Türkiye's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Türkiye or France?
Neither side. Our model splits it 29% Türkiye, 51% the draw and 21% France, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Türkiye vs France being played?
25 September 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Türkiye and France met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Türkiye and France?
Türkiye have taken 9 points from their last five (WLLWW), France 9 from theirs (LLWWW). Most recently Türkiye took a 3-2 win at home to USA and France a 4-6 defeat at home to England.
How many goals are expected in Türkiye vs France?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.00 for Türkiye and 2.00 for France. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.