Italy vs Belgium: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 50% for Italy vs Belgium. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Italy host Belgium on 25 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This 1 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Italy - Belgium. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Italy: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded five, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Belgium: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored 13 and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Italy | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWL | LWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 13 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 21% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.50, over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Italy's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Italy or Belgium?
Neither side. Our model splits it 29% Italy, 50% the draw and 21% Belgium, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Italy vs Belgium being played?
25 September 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Italy and Belgium met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Italy and Belgium?
Italy have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDWL), Belgium 10 from theirs (LWWWD). Most recently Italy took a 1-0 win away at Greece and Belgium a 1-2 defeat away at Spain.
How many goals are expected in Italy vs Belgium?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.50 — 1.00 for Italy and 2.50 for Belgium. It rates over 2.5 goals at 81%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.