Greece vs Netherlands: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Greece vs Netherlands. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Greece face Netherlands on 1 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league a 3 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Greece - Netherlands. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Greece: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +1.
Netherlands: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored twelve and conceded six, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.3 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Greece | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDL | DDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 28.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Greece 35.2 versus Netherlands 28.3, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 13% and both teams to score at 41%.
- First goal: Leans Greece's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Greece or Netherlands?
Neither side. Our model splits it 31% Greece, 49% the draw and 21% Netherlands, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Greece vs Netherlands being played?
1 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Greece and Netherlands met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Greece and Netherlands?
Greece have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDDL), Netherlands 9 from theirs (DDWWD). Most recently Greece took a 2-1 win away at Serbia and Netherlands a 1-1 draw at home to Germany.
How many goals are expected in Greece vs Netherlands?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.00 for Greece and 1.50 for Netherlands. It rates over 2.5 goals at 13%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 41%, so its call is no.