France vs Italy: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for France vs Italy. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
France face Italy on 2 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league a 3 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as France - Italy. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
France: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eight, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Italy: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | France | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLW | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.5 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: France 45.5 versus Italy 35.2, a gap of 10.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 37%.
- First goal: Leans France's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: France or Italy?
Neither side. Our model splits it 26% France, 51% the draw and 23% Italy, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is France vs Italy being played?
2 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have France and Italy met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of France and Italy?
France have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLLW), Italy 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently France took a 1-0 win away at Belgium and Italy a 4-1 win away at Türkiye.
How many goals are expected in France vs Italy?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for France and 1.00 for Italy. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 37%, so its call is no.