Belgium vs Türkiye: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Belgium the pick at 73% for Belgium vs Türkiye. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Belgium face Türkiye on 2 October 2026. Belgium are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This league a 3 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Belgium - Türkiye. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Belgium: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Türkiye: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Belgium | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | LLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.2 | 24.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 4% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Belgium 35.2 versus Türkiye 24.0, a gap of 11.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 27%.
- First goal: Leans Belgium's way at 79%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Belgium at 73%, a gap of 51 percentage points to the next outcome. Belgium's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Belgium or Türkiye?
Belgium, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Belgium, 23% the draw and 4% Türkiye.
When and where is Belgium vs Türkiye being played?
2 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Belgium and Türkiye met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Belgium and Türkiye?
Belgium have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), Türkiye 3 from theirs (LLWLL). Most recently Belgium took a 0-1 defeat at home to France and Türkiye a 1-4 defeat at home to Italy.
How many goals are expected in Belgium vs Türkiye?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 2.50 for Belgium and 0.00 for Türkiye. It rates over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 27%, so its call is no.