Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 50% for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Sweden travel to Bosnia & Herzegovina on 2 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This league b 3 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Bosnia & Herzegovina - Sweden. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bosnia & Herzegovina: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded nine, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +2.
Sweden: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWL | WWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 7 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.8 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bosnia & Herzegovina 38.8 versus Sweden 45.8, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.67, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Bosnia & Herzegovina's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bosnia & Herzegovina or Sweden?
Neither side. Our model splits it 25% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 50% the draw and 25% Sweden, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden being played?
2 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden?
Bosnia & Herzegovina have taken 7 points from their last five (WDLWL), Sweden 7 from theirs (WWLDL). Most recently Bosnia & Herzegovina took a 4-2 win away at Romania and Sweden a 3-1 win at home to Poland.
How many goals are expected in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.67 — 0.67 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.00 for Sweden. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.