Italy vs France match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes France the pick at 50% for Italy vs France. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Italy host France on 12 November 2026. France are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This league a 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Italy - France. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Italy: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
France: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Italy | France |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 11 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 59.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 50% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Italy 49.1 versus France 59.6, a gap of 10.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.05, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans France's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to France at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Italy or France?
France, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 22% Italy, 28% the draw and 50% France.
When and where is Italy vs France being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Italy and France met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Italy and France?
Italy have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), France 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently Italy took a 3-1 win at home to Türkiye and France a 4-1 win at home to Belgium.
How many goals are expected in Italy vs France?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.05 — 1.25 for Italy and 2.80 for France. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.