England vs Croatia — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes England the pick at 58% for England vs Croatia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Croatia travel to England on 12 November 2026. England are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This league a 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as England - Croatia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
England: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 12 conceded in eleven matches, 2.0 and 1.09 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Croatia: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +11 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | LLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 20 / 7 | 5 / 16 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 1.09 | 1.67 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.09 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.8 | 32.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 21% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: England 57.8 versus Croatia 32.5, a gap of 25.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans England's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards England at 58%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. England's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: England or Croatia?
England, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% England, 21% the draw and 21% Croatia.
When and where is England vs Croatia being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between England and Croatia?
England 4-2 Croatia on 17 June 2026.
What is the recent form of England and Croatia?
England have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Croatia 3 from theirs (LLLWL). Most recently England took a 3-0 win at home to Czechia and Croatia a 1-2 defeat at home to Spain.
How many goals are expected in England vs Croatia?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.60 for England and 1.60 for Croatia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.