Albania vs Finland: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Albania the pick at 55% for Albania vs Finland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Finland travel to Albania on 12 November 2026. Albania are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Albania - Finland. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Albania: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Finland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Albania | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +5 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | LWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 4 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 50.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Albania 56.2 versus Finland 50.1, a gap of 6.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Albania's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Albania at 55%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Albania or Finland?
Albania, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Albania, 22% the draw and 22% Finland.
When and where is Albania vs Finland being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Albania and Finland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Albania and Finland?
Albania have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), Finland 7 from theirs (LWDWL). Most recently Albania took a 2-1 win at home to San Marino and Finland a 0-1 defeat away at Belarus.
How many goals are expected in Albania vs Finland?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.50 for Albania and 0.50 for Finland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.