San Marino vs Belarus: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between San Marino and Belarus on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Belarus travel to San Marino on 12 November 2026. Belarus are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 34%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as San Marino - Belarus. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
San Marino: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded 18, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -15.
Belarus: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | San Marino | Belarus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -15 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | WWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 18 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 21.2 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: San Marino 21.2 versus Belarus 49.1, a gap of 27.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 33% and both teams to score at 41%.
- First goal: Leans San Marino's way at 43%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Belarus is the nominal pick at 34%, but the three results sit close to even. Belarus' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: San Marino or Belarus?
Belarus, with an implied win probability of roughly 34%. The full split is 33% San Marino, 33% the draw and 34% Belarus.
When and where is San Marino vs Belarus being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have San Marino and Belarus met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of San Marino and Belarus?
San Marino have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Belarus 8 from theirs (WWDLD). Most recently San Marino took a 1-2 defeat away at Albania and Belarus a 1-0 win at home to Finland.
How many goals are expected in San Marino vs Belarus?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.00 for San Marino and 1.50 for Belarus. It rates over 2.5 goals at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 41%, so its call is no.