Serbia vs Germany match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Germany the pick at 55% for Serbia vs Germany. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Serbia host Germany on 13 November 2026. Germany are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This league a 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Serbia - Germany. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Serbia: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -5.
Germany: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Serbia | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -5 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | DWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 4 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 23.8 | 41.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 55% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Serbia 23.8 versus Germany 41.9, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Germany's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Germany at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Germany's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Serbia or Germany?
Germany, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 23% Serbia, 22% the draw and 55% Germany.
When and where is Serbia vs Germany being played?
13 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Serbia and Germany met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Serbia and Germany?
Serbia have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Germany 6 from theirs (DWLDD). Most recently Serbia took a 1-2 defeat away at Netherlands and Germany a 0-0 draw away at Greece.
How many goals are expected in Serbia vs Germany?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 1.60 for Serbia and 3.20 for Germany. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.