Moldova vs Kazakhstan: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Moldova the pick at 56% for Moldova vs Kazakhstan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Moldova host Kazakhstan on 13 November 2026. Moldova are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Moldova - Kazakhstan. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Moldova: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -5.
Kazakhstan: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored six and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Moldova | Kazakhstan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLD | DLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 9 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.1 | 31.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 17% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Moldova 37.1 versus Kazakhstan 31.2, a gap of 5.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Moldova's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Moldova at 56%, a gap of 29 percentage points to the next outcome. Moldova's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Moldova or Kazakhstan?
Moldova, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Moldova, 27% the draw and 17% Kazakhstan.
When and where is Moldova vs Kazakhstan being played?
13 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Moldova and Kazakhstan met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Moldova and Kazakhstan?
Moldova have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDLD), Kazakhstan 2 from theirs (DLLDL). Most recently Moldova took a 0-4 defeat at home to Slovakia and Kazakhstan a 2-2 draw at home to Faroe Islands.
How many goals are expected in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for Moldova and 1.00 for Kazakhstan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.