Bulgaria vs Iceland: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bulgaria the pick at 51% for Bulgaria vs Iceland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bulgaria host Iceland on 13 November 2026. Bulgaria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This league c 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Bulgaria - Iceland. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bulgaria: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Iceland: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bulgaria | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -2 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLD | DWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.8 | 53.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bulgaria 37.8 versus Iceland 53.2, a gap of 15.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.95, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Bulgaria's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Bulgaria at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bulgaria or Iceland?
Bulgaria, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Bulgaria, 23% the draw and 26% Iceland.
When and where is Bulgaria vs Iceland being played?
13 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Bulgaria and Iceland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bulgaria and Iceland?
Bulgaria have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDLD), Iceland 8 from theirs (DWWDL). Most recently Bulgaria took a 2-0 win away at Luxembourg and Iceland a 0-0 draw away at Estonia.
How many goals are expected in Bulgaria vs Iceland?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.95 — 1.35 for Bulgaria and 0.60 for Iceland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.