Norway vs Wales — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Norway the pick at 53% for Norway vs Wales. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Wales travel to Norway on 14 November 2026. Norway are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This league a 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Norway - Wales. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Norway: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Wales: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Norway | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.5 | 34.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Norway's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Norway at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Norway or Wales?
Norway, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Norway, 24% the draw and 23% Wales.
When and where is Norway vs Wales being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Norway and Wales met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Norway and Wales?
Norway have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Wales 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Norway took a 1-2 defeat away at Portugal and Wales a 0-1 defeat at home to Denmark.
How many goals are expected in Norway vs Wales?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.80 for Norway and 0.60 for Wales. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.