Portugal vs Denmark match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Portugal the pick at 53% for Portugal vs Denmark. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Portugal face Denmark on 14 November 2026. Portugal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This league a 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Portugal - Denmark. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Portugal: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Denmark: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portugal | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.2 | 45.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Portugal 66.2 versus Denmark 45.0, a gap of 21.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Portugal's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Portugal at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portugal or Denmark?
Portugal, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Portugal, 23% the draw and 23% Denmark.
When and where is Portugal vs Denmark being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Portugal and Denmark met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Portugal and Denmark?
Portugal have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Denmark 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Portugal took a 2-1 win at home to Norway and Denmark a 1-0 win away at Wales.
How many goals are expected in Portugal vs Denmark?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Portugal and 1.80 for Denmark. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.