Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Northern Ireland the pick at 37% for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Northern Ireland host Ukraine on 14 November 2026. Northern Ireland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This league b 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Northern Ireland - Ukraine. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Northern Ireland: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded three, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Ukraine: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Northern Ireland | Ukraine |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWL | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.7 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 32% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Northern Ireland 52.7 versus Ukraine 37.6, a gap of 15.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.75, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Ukraine's way at 46%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Northern Ireland at 37%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Northern Ireland's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Northern Ireland or Ukraine?
Northern Ireland, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% Northern Ireland, 31% the draw and 32% Ukraine.
When and where is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Northern Ireland and Ukraine met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Northern Ireland and Ukraine?
Northern Ireland have taken 8 points from their last five (DWDWL), Ukraine 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently Northern Ireland took a 0-0 draw at home to Georgia and Ukraine a 1-2 defeat at home to Hungary.
How many goals are expected in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.75 — 0.75 for Northern Ireland and 1.00 for Ukraine. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.