Romania vs Poland match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
There is barely anything between Romania and Poland on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Poland travel to Romania on 14 November 2026. Poland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This league b 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Romania - Poland. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Romania: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded 14, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -10.
Poland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Romania | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -10 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | LWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 14 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.5 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Romania 22.5 versus Poland 39.1, a gap of 16.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Poland's way at 50%.
The call
The model does not commit. Poland is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. Poland's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Romania or Poland?
Poland, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 35% Romania, 25% the draw and 39% Poland.
When and where is Romania vs Poland being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Romania and Poland met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Romania and Poland?
Romania have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Poland 5 from theirs (LWLDD). Most recently Romania took a 0-1 defeat at home to Sweden and Poland a 0-1 defeat away at Bosnia & Herzegovina.
How many goals are expected in Romania vs Poland?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Romania and 1.40 for Poland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.