Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Sweden the pick at 48% for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bosnia & Herzegovina travel to Sweden on 14 November 2026. Sweden are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This league b 5 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Sweden - Bosnia & Herzegovina. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sweden: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored seven and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Bosnia & Herzegovina: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sweden | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +4 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | WDWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.3 | 52.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Sweden 59.3 versus Bosnia & Herzegovina 52.4, a gap of 6.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Sweden's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Sweden at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sweden or Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Sweden, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Sweden, 27% the draw and 26% Bosnia & Herzegovina.
When and where is Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Sweden have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Bosnia & Herzegovina 8 from theirs (WDWDL). Most recently Sweden took a 1-0 win away at Romania and Bosnia & Herzegovina a 1-0 win at home to Poland.
How many goals are expected in Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.80 for Sweden and 1.00 for Bosnia & Herzegovina. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.