Belarus vs Albania match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
There is barely anything between Belarus and Albania on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Albania travel to Belarus on 15 November 2026. Belarus are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This league c 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Belarus - Albania. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Belarus: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored seven and conceded four, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Albania: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Belarus | Albania |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLD | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Belarus 49.1 versus Albania 56.2, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Belarus' way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Belarus is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Belarus or Albania?
Belarus, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 39% Belarus, 35% the draw and 25% Albania.
When and where is Belarus vs Albania being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Belarus and Albania met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Belarus and Albania?
Belarus have taken 8 points from their last five (WWDLD), Albania 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Belarus took a 1-0 win at home to Finland and Albania a 2-1 win at home to San Marino.
How many goals are expected in Belarus vs Albania?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.50 for Belarus and 0.50 for Albania. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.