Finland vs San Marino — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes San Marino the pick at 47% for Finland vs San Marino. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Finland host San Marino on 15 November 2026. San Marino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This league c 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Finland - San Marino. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Finland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
San Marino: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded 18, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Finland | San Marino |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 4 | 2 / 18 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.1 | 21.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 47% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Finland 50.1 versus San Marino 21.2, a gap of 28.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.50, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans San Marino's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to San Marino at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Finland's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Finland or San Marino?
San Marino, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 26% Finland, 28% the draw and 47% San Marino.
When and where is Finland vs San Marino being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Finland and San Marino met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Finland and San Marino?
Finland have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), San Marino 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Finland took a 0-1 defeat away at Belarus and San Marino a 1-2 defeat away at Albania.
How many goals are expected in Finland vs San Marino?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.50 — 0.50 for Finland and 0.00 for San Marino. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.