France vs Türkiye — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes France the pick at 59% for France vs Türkiye. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
France face Türkiye on 15 November 2026. France are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as France - Türkiye. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
France: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +5.
Türkiye: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | France | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | LLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 8 | 5 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.6 | 22.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: France 59.6 versus Türkiye 22.8, a gap of 36.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans France's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards France at 59%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. France's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: France or Türkiye?
France, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% France, 20% the draw and 21% Türkiye.
When and where is France vs Türkiye being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have France and Türkiye met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of France and Türkiye?
France have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Türkiye 3 from theirs (LLLLW). Most recently France took a 4-1 win at home to Belgium and Türkiye a 1-3 defeat away at Italy.
How many goals are expected in France vs Türkiye?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.80 for France and 1.20 for Türkiye. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.