Belgium vs Italy: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Belgium the pick at 62% for Belgium vs Italy. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Italy travel to Belgium on 15 November 2026. Belgium are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Belgium - Italy. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Belgium: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Italy: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Belgium | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWL | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 16% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Belgium 45.2 versus Italy 49.1, a gap of 3.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.65, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Belgium's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Belgium at 62%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Belgium or Italy?
Belgium, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Belgium, 22% the draw and 16% Italy.
When and where is Belgium vs Italy being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Belgium and Italy met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Belgium and Italy?
Belgium have taken 6 points from their last five (LWLWL), Italy 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Belgium took a 1-4 defeat away at France and Italy a 3-1 win at home to Türkiye.
How many goals are expected in Belgium vs Italy?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.65 — 2.40 for Belgium and 1.25 for Italy. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.