Spain vs England match summary and prediction — UEFA Nations League
Our model makes Spain the pick at 56% for Spain vs England. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Spain face England on 15 November 2026. Spain are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Spain - England. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Spain: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 1 conceded in nine matches, 1.67 and 0.11 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +7.
England: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 12 conceded in eleven matches, 2.0 and 1.09 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Spain | England |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +7 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | WWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 5 | 20 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 11 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.67 / 0.11 | 2.0 / 1.09 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.33 | 2.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.8 | 57.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Spain 66.8 versus England 57.8, a gap of 9.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Spain's way at 58%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Spain at 56%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Spain or England?
Spain, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Spain, 21% the draw and 23% England.
When and where is Spain vs England being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Spain and England met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Spain and England?
Spain have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), England 12 from theirs (WWWLW). Most recently Spain took a 2-1 win away at Croatia and England a 3-0 win at home to Czechia.
How many goals are expected in Spain vs England?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.20 for Spain and 2.60 for England. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.