Croatia vs Czechia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Croatia the pick at 62% for Croatia vs Czechia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Croatia face Czechia on 15 November 2026. Croatia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This league a 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Croatia - Czechia. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Croatia: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded 16, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -10.
Czechia: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Croatia | Czechia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | -10 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 16 | 2 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.5 | 23.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 15% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Croatia 32.5 versus Czechia 23.0, a gap of 9.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.27, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Croatia's way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Croatia at 62%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Croatia or Czechia?
Croatia, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Croatia, 23% the draw and 15% Czechia.
When and where is Croatia vs Czechia being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Croatia and Czechia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Croatia and Czechia?
Croatia have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Czechia 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Croatia took a 1-2 defeat at home to Spain and Czechia a 0-3 defeat away at England.
How many goals are expected in Croatia vs Czechia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.27 — 1.60 for Croatia and 0.67 for Czechia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.