Estonia vs Bulgaria: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Estonia the pick at 47% for Estonia vs Bulgaria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Estonia host Bulgaria on 16 November 2026. Estonia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This league c 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Estonia - Bulgaria. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Estonia: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored three and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Bulgaria: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Estonia | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDDW | WLDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 1 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 37.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Estonia 45.2 versus Bulgaria 37.8, a gap of 7.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Estonia's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Estonia at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Estonia or Bulgaria?
Estonia, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Estonia, 24% the draw and 28% Bulgaria.
When and where is Estonia vs Bulgaria being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Estonia and Bulgaria met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Estonia and Bulgaria?
Estonia have taken 9 points from their last five (DWDDW), Bulgaria 5 from theirs (WLDLD). Most recently Estonia took a 0-0 draw at home to Iceland and Bulgaria a 2-0 win away at Luxembourg.
How many goals are expected in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Estonia and 1.35 for Bulgaria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.