Lithuania vs Liechtenstein: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lithuania the pick at 54% for Lithuania vs Liechtenstein. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lithuania host Liechtenstein on 16 November 2026. Lithuania are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This league d 6 fixture in UEFA Nations League is listed as Lithuania - Liechtenstein. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lithuania: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +1.
Liechtenstein: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored no and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lithuania | Liechtenstein |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | LDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 0 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 27.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 21% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Lithuania 38.6 versus Liechtenstein 27.8, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.35, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 41%.
- First goal: Leans Lithuania's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Lithuania at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Lithuania's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lithuania or Liechtenstein?
Lithuania, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Lithuania, 25% the draw and 21% Liechtenstein.
When and where is Lithuania vs Liechtenstein being played?
16 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Lithuania and Liechtenstein met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lithuania and Liechtenstein?
Lithuania have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), Liechtenstein 1 from theirs (LDLLL). Most recently Lithuania took a 0-1 defeat away at Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein a 0-2 defeat at home to Gibraltar.
How many goals are expected in Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.35 — 1.35 for Lithuania and 0.00 for Liechtenstein. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 41%, so its call is no.